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Figure 65. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 43 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 66. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 44 ) Source: Schoeffler
This next page contains the 1400 and 1415 "total absence of winds, a calm was noted in Walk Moore Canyon ..." (emphasis added) and gust front and downbursts and downslope winds excerpts.
Figure 67. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 45) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 68. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 46) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 69. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 47) Source: Schoeffler
"(6-30-90 1415) [OPS] Cooke says the fire was 200 to 300 yards from the line near Perryville burning downslope in light winds presenting no apparent problem for the burnout and no indication of a run like the one which occurred."
Figure 70. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 48) Source: Schoeffler
Consider now the LaTour peculiar comments and narrative regarding him as the alleged Perryville "Lookout" in page 48 (Figure 70. - above) and page 49 (Figure 71. - below). "(6-30-90 1415) LaTour had gone up the hill ... to look for spots. He would walk around to get a better view, where foliage interfered, never getting more than 100 to 200 yards from the crew."
An honest witness does not deceive, but a false witness pours out lies. Proverbs 14:5
Interesting - we say slightly disingenuous - statements here within the Dude Fire Chronology (6/26/90 1415) from LaTour (Deposition pages 55, 59-60, 71-73, 77-78, 88-93, 98-99, 101, 168, and 203) regarding the alleged Perryville Crew lookout(s) total numerous pages: "LaTour acted as a lookout, primarily for spot fires, and from time to time Terra, Bachman, Hatch, Denny were sent out to watch for spots, so that someone was doing so at all times. LaTour had gone up the hill while they were working on the powerline to look for spots. He would walk around to get a better view where foliage interfered, never getting more than 100 to 200 yards from the crew. He can't recall who, but someone was designated to watch for spots while he was above the crew when the blowup started. They used the more experienced people for lookouts. Where they were working when the fire blew up was no reasonable place to post a lookout who would have had a better view of the fire." (emphasis added)
The PACM minimally responded to this with: "I believe that's why Jeff Hatch was above me. He was up with a Navajo crew Lookout."
During the initial Dude Fire Staff Ride in 1999 - at the Deployment Site - I (DF) specifically asked who the Perryville Crew Lookout was. LaTour said 'It was me. I would hike up and down the hill during the day to check on the fire.' I told him that a designated Lookout was one who remained in place, not hiking up and down the hill.
Interesting statements here below too: "They [Overhead] found to their surprise that the [Bonita Creek] subdivision was surrounded by fire." (emphasis added) WTF do you mean, to their surprise! How are you surprised as the fire surrounds you?
Figure 71. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 49 ) Source: Schoeffler
"(6/30/90 1415) ... helicopter N-40MC ... carrying a sling load about 8000 feet [elevation] he experienced a downdraft and dropped several thousand feet at 3000 feet per minute. ... he flew the Rim several times ... and was jostled around by turbulence while dropping the load." (emphasis added)
"(6/30/90 1415) Helicopter N49673 made a [bucket] drop and filled his bucket on top of the Rim. During the 5 minutes he had left and returned the wind had shifted and was blowing smoke over the fireline. ... The smoke was about 50 feet above the treetops. There was a wall of flame between the treetops and smoke as far as he could see [in] either direction. ... The subdivision was no longer visible because of the smoke." (emphasis added)
Here we have documented evidence of the fire weather in the form of aggressive downdrafts at the 8000' level above the WFs on the firelines on the Dude Fire. Were these ever heard by or relayed to the WFs and FFs on the firelines below by these helicopter pilots or anyone else?
Figure 72. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 50 ) Source: Schoeffler
Consider the page 50 above Horizontal Roll Vortices (HRV) references - "An unburned strip of timber near the top of the ridge West of Walkmoore Canyon indicates that the Horizontal Roll Vortex might have occurred. However, no other indicators were found. ... Similar strips exist to the SE of the subdivision per [OPS] Leech and aerial photo. ... The needle set indicates the fire spread to the east, but in one location near the deployment site the needle set of the overstory was to the East while the leaves of the shorter trees and bushes pointed West." (emphasis added)
Since there are no known copies of Dude Fire HRV "Needle Set" photo images, due to USFS malfeasance, we had to resort to other sources to depict what we are referring to. We located some from the June 28, 2016, Cedar Fire in Figure 73a. and Figure 74a. below.
Additionally, these are some worthwhile Southwest and Tonto NF dates that should alert WFs and FFs: June 26, 1990 (Dude Fire) and June 28, 2016 (Cedar Fire) and June 30, 2013 (Yarnell Hill Fire).
Figure 72a. This sequence of six images, taken 0.75 seconds apart, looking down on a horizontal vortices within a fire. Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Inframetrics Thermacam, The COMET Program
Consider now these images and text below from The COMET Program S-290 Unit 11: Extreme Wildland Fire Behavior online course.
"The brightest yellow areas represent the hottest temperatures. FOD in each image refers to the 'Finger Of Death.' In frame 1, the arrow points to the starting point of the FOD in the upper right shoulder of the fire at the beginning time of 0.00 seconds. Frame 2 has arrow pointing to the FOD, which is beginning to form and burst forward at 0.75 seconds. The next image, frame 3, has the arrow showing that the FOD progresses further by 1.50 seconds. Frame 4 shows further elongation of the FOD at 2.25 seconds. By frame 5, the arrow shows that the FOD has extended to approximately 100 meters or 109 yards in just 3.00 seconds. Frame 6 shows the regression of the FOD to the main fire by 3.75 seconds."
"This sequence shows that a 'finger' of fire burst forward about 100 meters from the head of the fire at speeds exceeding 100 miles per hour, and then retreated back into the fire within three seconds. Seven horizontal rolls and capping vortices are also identified in the third frame."
"Horizontal rolls within fires have been hypothesized as occurring with crown fires. However, actual documentation has been limited." (emphasis added)
"(6/26/90 1418) The fire behavior intensified rapidly and the fire began a major run towards the east and Bonita Creek Subdivision. Rates of spread were in excess of 200 chains per hour (13,200 feet per hour, 2.5 mph) with flame length of 300 feet observed by people at the scene. The fire continued with intense rapid spread in all directions. By 2100 it had spread 1.5 miles to the East and South, 2 miles Southwest and 1.75 miles Northwest. By 2100 the fire was 8-9 thousand acres." (emphasis added)
(6/26/90 1418 + 1149) Putnam determined a possible rate of spread of 18 mph at the deployment site based on time to run distances. Andrews calculated a predicted max spread rate of 5.2 mph with crown model at only 40 mph maximum sustained windspeed. Her report also recognizes the fire flashed across the canyon at a greater rate than this. A 60 mph wind would put the predicted spread rate above 9 mph which is [off] the chart. TV 12 video shows 11+ mph spread rate between [the] deployment site fire location at 1423 and [the] road into the subdivision at 1425.
Dr. Putnam goes into a lot of detail on run speeds and fire rates of spread. His analysis of the running Fitness Scores and times and the ability to outrun the rapid rates of spread is well worth reading.
"(6/26/9 1418) When Latour was a little over 100 yards above Perryville checking spots the wind became strong as it had not done before, and he ran back down to his crew." (emphasis added).
During the 1999 Fire Behavior Analyst Conference in Phoenix, the first Dude Fire Staff Ride, which was also the first USFS Staff Ride was initiated. I (DF) remember, at the Fatality Site, this series of remarkable statements by CREP LaTour: "The Perryville Crew Rep stated that the 'Navajo Scouts had run through their Crew telling them to get out, the fire was upon them.' Yet, they ignored that warning. Next, he stated that he had 'burning bark plates bouncing off my fire shirt' and ignored that too. Next, he stated that he had 'burning pine cones, sticks, and twigs bouncing off my fire shirt' and ignored that as well." And yet, they were still there, counting on the quasi-leader to do the right thing. And yet, he was ignoring it all!
Figure 73. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 51 ) Source: Schoeffler
Consider these HRV references on the Dude Fire Chronology page 50 (Figure 72. above) and page 52 (Figure 74. below) respectively that contain comments regarding the evidence of extreme HRV fire behavior that occurred in Walk Moore Canyon during the outflow, downdraft winds.
The following photos in Figures 73a. Snippet images of "Needle Set" when hot gases warp the vegetation. Note the roll effect of the HRV forcing the needles downward and laterally. These are Snippets from the Cedar Fire Entrapment (June 28, 2016 at 1615 hrs.) Video (link below).
Figure 73a. Snippet images of "Needle Set" when hot gases warp the vegetation. Note the roll effect of the HRV forcing the needles downward and laterally. These are Snippets from Cedar Fire Entrapment (June 28, 2016 at 1615 hrs.) Video. Source: Wildland Fire LLC, YouTube
Consider the source for the above "needle set" images in Figure 73a. above and below in Figure 74b. contained within the Cedar Fire Entrapment Investigation Briefing Video ( https://youtu.be/Yeprtvo2xsY ). The Wildland Fire LLC Cedar Fire Serious Accident Investigation Report is in the link below. ( https://www.wildfirelessons.net/orphans/viewincident?DocumentKey=46244496-12cf-4333-84f6-3b3084d06c34 )
Figure 74. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 52 ) Source: Schoeffler
This page 52 (Figure 74. above) contains comments regarding the extreme Horizontal Roll Vortices (HRV) fire behavior that occurred in Walk Moore Canyon during the outflow, downdraft winds.
Figure 74a. "Snippet images of "Needle Set" when hot gases warp the vegetation. Note the roll effect of the HRV forcing the needles downward and laterally. These are Snippets from Cedar Fire Entrapment (June 28, 2016 at 1615 hrs.) Video. Source: Wildland Fire LLC, YouTube
I (DF) allege that Perryville Crew Boss Terra is lying throughout all this and /or AUSA Johns (RiP) has allowed it. He knew that Terra was lying to him and just shrugged it off ("what can I do" he said).
"(6/26/90 1419) The wall of fire on the East was advancing faster than the front on the West. ... One of the crewmembers' shovels caught on fire as he ran under the wall of flame, and they had to pitch the burning shovel out of the back of the truck as they escaped."
"(6/26/90 1419) A scenario consistent with all the evidence to date is at 1419 [Navajo Scouts] Notah shouted his warning while LaTour was running down to his crew. LaTour could see the lower crewmembers were running out when LaTour arrived. LaTour said 'Let's go' and the upper crewmembers grabbed water and tools and walked fast for a few seconds and began running. They ran until [cut off], covering about a thousand feet at rough 6-7 mph. The fire approached diagonally (from the NW to SE) to the dozer line at 9+ mph to reach the same cutoff point. This puts the crew close to where Hoke deployed. The main deployment site was reached at about 1422.75 with the flame front having already [cut off] Hoke below and above him. LaTour reached Scopa on the radio, counted to eleven (he was counting crewmembers who were deploying), Scopa then reached [OPS] Cooke who recorded the deployment time at 1423. Those who escaped reached the Control Road at 1423 to 1425 covering 3500-4000 feet in 5-6 minutes at 6 to 9 mph, a pace of a 9 to 7 minute mile. This is consistent with Putnam's experience, downhill running with gear at 6.7 mph, and with 'Fitness and Work Capacity', a 45 scorer running 1 1/2 miles at 7.3 mph, unfatigued on a track without gear. (Putnam then goes into similar detail for Springfield and Bachman). They were both [cut off] with the rest of the crew. Fire spread rate could not have been much slower than 9 mph and was probably faster in some locations."
"The fire was only 250 to 300 yards from them but Notah saw the flame front still inside the fire atop the ridge."
"(6/30/90 1419) Edison Notah could see the fire backing down the ridge to the west of them along the saddle, and could see it torching as it came up the steep nose of the ridge further Northwest of them. Flame lengths along the ridge were low except for the torching in steep terrain on the nose to the north. The fire was a few hundred yards across the canyon from them. He stepped back from the work and walked around to get a better view of the fire to the North and to the West. As he was standing above the dozer line looking at the fire to the West along the saddle of the ridge he saw a rolling crown fire come up the back of the ridge and roll over and down the ridge where before there the ground [surface] fire had been backing down. He then began shouting for everyone to run." (emphasis added)
(6/30/90 1419) Terra falsely claims he "received 2nd degree burns on the back of his neck, along with upper airway thermal damage and smoke inhalation as he ran out." I (DF) confidently allege that Terra self-inflicted the burns on his neck and threatened the inmates regarding him and Hill going for water.
How is it possible for Crew Boss Terra to both be with his crew in Walk Moore Canyon during all this and yet be seen and talked with on the Control Road and the Fuller Creek junction and admit twice to witnesses on that spot: "I should have never left my crew." And the SAIT stated that they knew three days after the fatalities that he was gone from the crew. How is that f**king possible?
Figure 75 Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 53 ) Source: Schoeffler
What follows are two maps for the Perryville individual Crewmember's position, locations, movements (left), and the other indicating their scattered fire equipment and gear indicating panic and pandemonium (right) in Figure 75a. below.
Figure 75a. Perryville Crew WF locations image (left) and tools and equipment locations image (right) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 76. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 54 ) Source: Schoeffler
"(6-30-90 1419) The fire was increasing rapidly and running parallel on the slope adjacent to them as they ran, crowning the tops of the trees. Dennison and his Crew Boss. Some of the Perryville Crewmembers passed them on the way down. They reached the road and the fire swept over them to another ridge across the road. They got into [onto] some engines and left until they saw their bus and left with all thier (sic) crewmembers." ... There were high winds and burning debris was falling and he could no longer see the fire itself. They could hear the fire but not see it ..." (emphasis added)
Figure 77. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 55 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 78. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 56 ) Source: Schoeffler
(6/30/90 1419) "Guy Jirrels, Chandler Fire Department ... when the fire blew he was above Perryville Crew and Alpine. He could not see Perryville. A hot blast of air came up into his face and then shifted and he could feel it on the back of his neck. They then left up the line." (emphasis added)
Please note the number of LaTour interviews and depositions referenced in the AUSA Dude Fire Chronology at the bottom of page 56 in Figure 78.
Figure 79. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 57 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 80. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 58 ) Source: Schoeffler
I (DF) allege that DIVS Whitney, on one of the Dude Fire Staff Rides, falsely claims that he was a Branch Director on the Dude Fire instead of a DIVS.
I, Joy A. Collura, (fact check and verified) contacted Whitney by email June 17, 2020, and he replied at 8:39 PM when asked directly by email- "I'm not interested."
Figure 81. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 59 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 82. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 60 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 83. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 61 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 84. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 62 ) Source: Schoeffler
What follows during the (6/30/19 1422) timeframe in the next several pages are Prescott HS excerpts noticing the changing fire weather and the Perryville Crew fire shelter deployments and burnovers.
Figure 85. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 63 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 86. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 64 ) Source: Schoeffler
What follows are USFS employee (the one hauling the drinking water in Walk Moore Canyon by ATV) Hanna's excerpts regarding loading his ATV and the Navajo Scouts and Perryville Crewmembers alerting him and utilizing his trick as an Escape Route
Figure 87. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 65 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 88. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 66 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 89. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 67 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 90. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 68 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 91. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 69) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 92. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 70 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 93. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 71 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 94. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 72 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 95. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 73 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 97. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 74 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 98. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 75 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 99. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 76 ) Source: Schoeffler
"He [DIVS Whitney] was surprised to see the fire burning downslope at 1330."
Figure 100. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 77 ) Source: Schoeffler
Prescott HS Sciacca statement: "After the Prescott HS reached the [Control] road at about 1427, they were walking to the safety zone when there was a downblast of wind of 35 to 40 mph. This was the first strong wind they encountered." (emphasis added)
This is a noteworthy fire weather event setting the stage for the downslope winds to follow.
Figure 101. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 78 ) Source: Schoeffler
Consider now this statement from the Dude Fire Narrative: "At about 1430, ... the fire, fanned by thunderstorm winds, became active on all fronts with major runs in all directions. All other crews were pulled into safety areas. Engines in the vicinity of Bonita Creek Subdivision were burnt over with no injuries, but several engines received damage." (emphasis added)
Figure 102. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 79 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 103. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 80 ) Source: Schoeffler
During the Perryville Crew Hatch rescue and attempt to get him extracted, "[Alpine HS] Mattingly considered deploying shelters there [Corner House area] if the could not locate the crews and safety zone quickly." (emphasis added)
Figure 104. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 81 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 105: Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 82 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 106. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 83 ) Source: Schoeffler
DIVS Behrens "on the southwest side of the fire. A dozer and Hotshot crews were constructing liner toward Bonita Creek (East). It was dark and smoky above them, It became dead calm and rained a few drops and the fire began to run in all directions, cutting his division in half. He ordered his crews to pull out to the [C]ontrol Road and he attempted to notify overhead and other crews, but radio traffic had increased and it was very difficult to make contact. It took about 10 minutes to reach the Control Road. ... They were able to stay ahead of the blowup as they walked out to the Control Road." (emphasis added)
Figure 107. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 84 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 108. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 86 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 109. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 87 ) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 110. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 88) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 111. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) Dude Fire Chronology ( page 89) Source: Schoeffler
Figure 112. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) from USDA Acting Chief for F. Dale Robertson, dated Sept. 21, 1992, regarding potential USFS employees being subpoenaed to provide testimony in the Chacon v. State of Arizona court case Source: Schoeffler
"This action arises out of the deaths of Joseph L. Chacon, Alex S. Contreras, James Ellis, and Curtis Springfield, all of whom served as members of a firefighting detail composed of inmates from the Arizona State Prison at Perryville, Arizona. Pursuant to an interagency agreement, the Arizona Department of Corrections contracted with the Arizona State Land Department to provide a labor force to the Land Department to support its regular firefighting obligations; the Perryville State Prison firefighting detail was formed in partial satisfaction of this contract. The four men were killed while helping to fight a large fire in the Tonto National Forest in Arizona on June 26, 1990. The governor of Arizona granted each of the decedents a full and unconditional posthumous pardon on November 6, 1990."
It is of utmost concern and most disheartening that the AZ State Forestry failed to provide a full examination of the Dude Fire.
If you are a family, friend, or loved one of one of these inmates or DOC employee Sandra Bachman, and this is your first exposure to these revelations, I want to express my deepest condolences to you.
Figure 112a. Assistant U.S. Attorney, Michael A. Johns (RiP) signature page of letter above in Figure 112. Source: Schoeffler
"Survivors of inmate firefighters killed Dude blaze sue State" by Brent Whiting AZ Republic article dated December 21, 1990, requested by Tom Story on February 5, 1992. Unable to locate these articles online, including using the Internet Archive Wayback Machine.
In all my research and Public Records Requests, and AZ State Forestry stated to me by email that they had destroyed Scott Hunt's records. In this fax, this is the only time that Scott Hunt is identified with a job titled position as State Land Department District Forester.
"Inmates families file claims - Allege State Didn't Properly Train, Equip Prisoners to Fight Fire" by Mike McCloy Phoenix Gazette October 4, 1990
Figure 113. Proof of Story Request (x2) from October 4, 1990 and December 21, 1990, respectively, about the Perryville Inmate families filing wrongful injury and death lawsuits against the State of Arizona. Requests made by AZ Republic Tom Story Source: Record Files; Joy A Collura
Thursday, June 16, 2016
What follows are key excerpts of "The Big Lie - Honor the Fallen Essay Introduction." Unless noted otherwise, all emphasis is added. "What the [Honor the Fallen (HTF)] group seeks is best explained by one of its founders:" “'One of the few acts of free will that tragedy leaves within our control is the chance to grow. Our brothers have given us such a precious and hard won opportunity to learn new knowledge and apply lessons. We realize and seek to highlight that cultural and other human factors risks are just as profound and potentially deadly as physical risks on any incident." So true, however, we refuse to delve into the human factors and psychology in any detail at all now that the latest craze is with the newfangled Coordinated Response Protocol (which I call CRaP), RLAs, FLAs, and Learning Reviews - ad nauseum. "The results WILL be repeated unchecked unless we commit to looking inside, to looking deeper at how we think, how we talk and how we perceive ourselves." This follows the "incomplete" lessons learned that emanated from Sociologist Dianne Vaughan (Columbia and Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster) talked about elsewhere on this YHFR website. "Our end state is that the group’s efforts became a catalyst for continued cultural introspection into how human factors affect our decisions. The engagement generates a watershed event from the fire, having provoked thought, dialogue, questions and explorations in all corners of the wildland fire community. Yarnell Hill leads to a stronger, more self‐aware and more resilient wildland fire culture." These are definitely noble end state goals, however, other than interested individuals and groups, (i.e. Ranger Districts / Zones, modules, etc.) looking into human factors, and how it affects our decisions, there is certainly nothing in the alleged "cultural introspection" arena. And in Arizona, the alleged "provoked thought, dialogue, questions and explorations in all corners of the wildland fire community" is nonexistent, especially at the annual Arizona Wildland Fire Academy.
"Our effort was perceived as having rendered due honor and respect to the Granite Mountain Hotshots.'” (emphasis original) We would like to know - who were the ones that were allegedly "perceived as having rendered due honor and respect to the Granite Mountain Hotshots?" The seems as if a majority of the WFs and FFs feel that it's over and time to let it go and move on - "everybody knows what happened." Or as we recently heard from a National Incident Management Organization (NIMO) employee that most definitely drank the Kool-Aid when he stated - "it's been seven years." So ... what is that supposed to mean? At Staff Rides, Site visits, formal and informal conversations, presentations, discussions, etc. people are starving for information on the YH Fire debacle and the GMHS tragedy besides the bogus no blame, no fault, they and the IMT did everything right conclusion(s) and narratives in the SAIT-SAIR. This includes "we will never know" four times, and an idealized image of some alleged bogus fire behavior compared to a real photographic image with Google Earth overlay indicating GMHS locations, movements, decision points, etc. as shown in Figure 114 (below).
Figure 114. June 30, 2013, SAIT-SAIR Figure 18. (p. 77) idealized image (left) of YH Fire alleged split heads above and below GMHS. Lauber 1629 (4:29 PM) photo (right) with Google Earth overlays Source: SAIT-SAIR, Lauber, WTKTT, Google Earth
"HTF is ready for this essay to be shared. But as another one of our members put it so well:" “'…I can't help but feel that there is a conversation that needs to precede it. A conversation about our mission as suppression resources. Are we now in the business of intentionally risking lives to achieve wildland fire objectives? I ask because at least the [Agency] has never accepted that position before and maintains its stance on zero tolerance to this day. I understand that firefighters are going to die but there is a big difference between vehicle accidents and entrapments.'”
Here's a June 30, 2020, Twitter clip from the AZ State Forestry website regarding the seventh anniversary of the YH Fire debacle and the GMHS tragedy. "AZ State Forestry @azstateforestry: 7 years ago today, the wildland fire community lost 19 of their own. These men were more than firefighters; they were husbands, fathers, sons, & brothers. We will always remember these brave men - the Yarnell 19 - who gave their lives protecting our #Arizona #AZFire #AZForestry." (emphasis added) Excuse me - these men's lives were taken from them when supervisors failed to redeem their ultimate supervisory safety and welfare responsibilities. In other words, they NEVER gave their lives. This feculent Agency / Media news release drivel has got to stop!
"This essay takes the position that, by default, and for many reasons, risking lives to achieve wildland fire objectives is exactly what is happening. The debate on whether that is what should be happening is stifled by the denial that it’s happening right now." This is especially true with the latest trend in the USFS to pervert the alleged management and operations on "Resource Benefit Fires" with the 2019 Tonto NF (TNF) Woodbury Fire in and around the Superstition Mountain Wilderness area being a classic example. The USFS basically authorized the entire to be burned off by hand and aerial ignition after the TNF Forest Supervisor directed the Initial and Extended Attack forces and overhead - who had the fire contained at about 1,700 acres - to 'let it go' and that all aerial retardant orders would be cancelled. So then, those resources that had the fire contained were now exposed to additional, unnecessary risks. This also resulted in key sections of the Apache Trail being gutted and literally washed out during monsoonal rains. These sections will likely never be repaired due to the USFS trend toward Comrade Clinton's nefarious "Roadless Initiative" which is a deceptive means to an end to bypass Congress and create quasi Wilderness and / or Primitive Areas.
And as of the writing of this post we already experienced the same thing on the Bush Fire and may very well be able to include the less than 600 acres TNF Polles Fire in the Mazatzal Wilderness area as a Type 3 Fire transitioning to a Type I Fire.
Figure 115. Polles Fire (TNF - Mazatzal Wilderness Area) photo taken July 6, 2012, at 1619 (4:19 PM)revealing tons of retardant for Very Large Airtankers and virtually no smoke whatsoever. Source: Inciweb
Check this July 6, 2020, 1619 (4:19 PM) photo out very carefully. The USFS wants desperately to assign a Type 1 IMT, at over $1 million dollars per day, to this fire, that is at a whopping 572 acres of creeping and smoldering fire behavior, with virtually NO smoke showing. WTF! What f**king bulls**t! The Crews on the fire speak of heavy grass fuel loadings and typical PITA Junipers. "... Everyone knows it is unsustainable, everyone knows what is going to happen if nothing is done. Everyone knows it’s going to be really bad. Yet we demonstrate a complete lack of collective will to tackle the elephant in the room. Slight adjustments and tweaks are made that have almost no perceptible impact because they nibble around the edges of symptoms. The causes at the core remain unchallenged."
Those still posting on the YH Fire portions of InvestigativeMEDIA and our YHFR website address and challenge and tackle those issues that are addressed above on a regular basis. We accomplish this as Investigative Journalists and Truth Tellers with Constitutionally protected views expressed to "the public at large” and "of public concern."
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"There were no illusions about the path we had chosen. From that moment on, death and injury were going to be a normal part of my life." In every work group, especially wildland firefighting or the military, fatalities are inevitable due to personnel making stupid decisions. All we can do is our best to confidently and courageously examine, investigate, research write, publish, present and discuss them in various forums.
"A state fire chief I greatly respect recently asked, 'Why are families so surprised or feel betrayed when their kids die fighting wildfires?'" It is an interesting question deserving of a defendable and justifiable answer. However, they wholly entrust their cherished family, friends, and loved ones to us as supervisors, fully expecting us to fulfill our almost sacred supervisory responsibilities to do our best to ensure the safety and welfare of those we supervise.
"I believe the answer to that is because of the Big Lie. The lie that wildland firefighting is safe. Young firefighters and their families are told that they have a "right" to a safe work environment. It is explicit in the Interagency Standards for Fire and Aviation Operations "Every individual has the right to turn down unsafe assignments." (footnote omitted - emphasis added)
( NWCG, (2016) Interagency Standards for Fire & Aviation Operations, Chap. 07 Safety and Risk Management, 07‐14 ) I agree that the answer to that is because of the Big Lie. However, the "right" to a safe work environment and an actual "safe" work environment are mutually exclusive, (i.e. separate and very different from each other, so that it is impossible for them to exist or happen together).
We think this falls in line with the Federal OSHA "General Duty Clause" examined in the two Law Review articles below.
Stillman, N.G. (1987) Expansion of Occupational Safety and Health Law, 62 Notre Dame L. Rev. 969
Secunda, P.M. (2019) Hybrid Federalism and the Employee Right to Disconnect. Pepperdine Law Review, 46
"The lie is so insidious that it permeates the thinking of many fire managers and agency administrators to the point of denial, despite a steady flow of coffins standing as evidence to the contrary." For several years now, many Fire Managers and most Agency Administrators have very little wildland fire experience and therefore no wildland fire leadership skills.
"From 2000 through 2013, an average of 18.6 ground and aerial wildland firefighters died doing normal business on fires each year. In 12 of 14 years that number was well into double digits. In 2013, it was 34." It was solely because of the June 2013 YH Fire debacle and the GMHS tragedy.
"I am always challenged during discussions about risk during classes and presentations to wildland audiences. 'We're different than the military. We do not have acceptable losses.'" (footnote omitted) (Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center (WFLLC) (2015) Two More Chains, Spring 2015 Vol. 5 Issue 1)
The wildland fire world does not have nor approve of acceptable losses. We do not engage on wildfires knowing that we will likely "lose" people in the process.
Arrubla, L.V.D. (2016) Normalization of Deviance: when non-compliance becomes the “new normal.” Living safely with human error. Human Factors in Aviation. ( https://livingsafelywithhumanerror.wordpress.com/2016/12/03/normalization-of-deviance/ )
"It appears you do," I respond. "It's almost 19 a year and for the most part the cultural fundamentals of trying to fight fire on the cheap with a seasonal militia based model are unchanged.” Once again, the wildland fire world does not have nor approve of acceptable losses. We do not engage on wildfires knowing that we will likely "lose" people in the process. And "fight[ing] fire on the cheap with a seasonal militia based model" is a Straw Man or Red Herring Fallacy because this "seasonal militia" still works for experienced and trained WF and FF supervisors.
"Is it surprising when a highway patrol officer is killed in an accident or shooting? Are we shocked when a structural firefighter is caught in a roof collapse? When a ship is lost at sea in a big storm? My Mom would have been distraught had I been killed, but she wouldn’t have been surprised."
There should be no surprises whatsoever, when anyone in any hazardous work group is killed in the line of duty. They are inevitable because they most often do stupid s**t or avoid following established rules and protocols. So then, all we can do is our best to reduce them.
"The truth is that wildland firefighting, like any realm in which people, machines and extreme natural forces collide, is inherently dangerous. One in which a seemingly small error, even being at the wrong time and place, can get people hurt or killed. How long do we try to "vector to zero" before admitting the data is telling us there is no such thing? Without a doubt, "wildland firefighting is inherently dangerous." So then, it's really fairly simple. Ignore the inaccurate data, become a Realist, and enlarge your views on the first-hand, matter-of-fact, empirical statistics. There is no such thing as zero fatalities in an inherently dangerous profession.
"Merriam Webster has a pretty simple definition of safe:"Free from harm or risk." (footnote omitted)
"It seems unrealistic one could be working on or above the fire ground and be free from risk. Here’s the interagency standards’ definition of safety: 'A measure of the degree of freedom from risk or conditions that can cause death, physical harm, or equipment or property damage.'" (footnote omitted) It is unrealistic. There will always be risk.
"The big lie turned from 'Free from risk" into "A measurement of the degree of freedom from risk". How does that measurement appear on a wildland 215A? Or discussion around "acceptable risk" in a WFDSS document or IAP? The point of origin of the Big Lie. If interagency policy defines safety as a measurement of something that never gets measured... how can that mean anything?" Because it is Orwellian Doublespeak (Called Newspeak in the book 1984, it is language that intentionally obscures, disguises, distorts, or reverses the meaning of words). And even worse, and so endemic for so long now, it has now become Doublethink, where one is able to grasp on to two opposing thoughts as being true at the same time.
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"If the definition of safety is meaningless, and in contravention of its true nature, so too will be all the policies, rules and checklists that flow from it. The garbage in, garbage out effect."
"Following progress down the left and right flanks of the Big Lie, the confusion magnifies. Platitudes like "the 10 and 18. We don't bend 'em, we don't break 'em", or "firefighter and public safety is your number one objective" – Actually, those are priorities not objectives. And ‐ they are two completely different priorities. Often you have to risk more with one in order to lessen the risk to the other."
"If real risk assessments ‐ using the two axis, probability/severity model ‐ were done in a tactics meeting on a typical wildland fire, here's what we'd find. That most firefighters are routinely operating in medium or high risk conditions."
"I often ask groups what they feel the risk level is on a typical fire assignment. The overwhelming majority say low, some say medium. This is shocking to me. There is nothing low risk about a 19 year old hotshot driving an ATV loaded with fuel mix down a mountain at dusk after being up and working for 12 hours. I would challenge anyone to do a proper risk assessment and get that below medium. A single engine air attack platform operating over a fire in severe turbulence is medium risk. I have done dozens of risk assessments for airborne operations and have never been able to get one of them under a risk level of high. This tells me every jumper is operating in high risk just to commute to work."
"Nearly 19 firefighters a year are dying because they are operating, even after mitigation, in an inherently high risk environment. Not because they are just violating rules in a low risk environment." We are just inferring here, but these almost have to be in the category of non-wildland fire burnovers, entrapments, and fatalities.
"I don’t believe the Big Lie is the normalization of this reality. The Big Lie is in denial of it. It stands in opposition to the wildland fire leadership values of duty, respect and integrity." (footnote omitted) (NWCG (2007) PMS 494‐2 Leading in the Wildland Fire Service, Preface)
"What actually gives me great hope is that, slowly, more and more leaders are abandoning the Big Lie in favor of the harsh truth that wildland firefighting is a very dangerous profession. The reality that people are going to get hurt and they are going to die." And this "harsh truth" is a good attitude to have and a good path to pursue.
"Many leaders have admitted to me in private that they know this. Yet they fear its admission is a license to ignore risks or abandon hard won safety standards. 'We can’t admit we have acceptable losses!'" Cowardly attitudes and behaviors from those alleged "leaders" that want to bury their heads in the sand rather than accept reality.
"A colleague, retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel Eric Carlson, puts it best. “Oh no.” he says, “We accept the risk of losses. There are no acceptable losses.” ⁹ That’s the crux. Our loss of 550 special operators was not acceptable. Each loss compelled us to introspection and improvement. Just as that loss of 261 wildland firefighters has driven us to this discussion we’re having now." Wake up those of you in leadership positions and learn to '... accept the risk of losses. There are no acceptable losses.' That’s the crux.
"There is acceptable risk. There is no acceptable loss. But there will be losses. So where does that uncomfortable truth leave us?" Accept this and know that fatalities will occur due to a plethora of unexamined wildland fire fatality causal human factors and then do your level best to reduce those numbers.
"Simply, with the sacred duty to keep that loss as low as humanly possible. With the obligation to tell the truth to our firefighters and families about the world they’ve become a part of. Of the risks they will face. With making imperfect decisions using the best art and science possible. With redeeming the values of duty, respect and integrity."
We are in complete agreement here on the "sacred duty" principle, especially the part about keeping WF and FF losses "as low as humanly possible." And even better yet - for these Government Agencies to adopt and promote and take the novel step to set the example toward "the obligation to tell the truth to our firefighters and families about the world they’ve become a part of. Of the risks they will face. With making imperfect decisions using the best art and science possible." What a simple, novel attitude and notion, yet so difficult for those so entrenched and mired in the darkness of lies and deception.
"There are many aspects to that challenge of what needs to be overcome and how, but all start with foundational culture. What aspects of current culture can we attribute to the Big Lie?" The only reason these Agencies function safely, is because of the groundswell of action from the troops in the field at the local levels on the Engines, Crews, Modules, etc.
"The Big Lie fails to acknowledge that it is impossible to 'obey' the 10 standard firefighting orders to the letter on the best day. Do you truly know where your firefighters are at all times? Do you really have communications at all times? Therefore on the worst day, when a bad outcome occurs, you have automatically violated these yes or no 'rules' and are therefore guilty. This is a lawyer’s dream."
Since when is it - or has it ever been - a crime to fail to obey the Ten Standard Fire Orders? There used to be - back in the day - in the USFS Personnel Manual policy direction for those indiscretions.
"Senior leaders have begun to address this by calling the 10 & 18 guidelines and not policy, but these steps have been tentative and only partially implemented."
The Ten Standard Fire Orders are rules and the 18 Watch Outs are guidelines. The reason that they are "tentative and only partially implemented" is due to poor leadership, including the young leaders "friendship" practice and the double standards for management themselves.
"The Big Lie has begot a zero defect mentality whose main goal is not making any mistakes. Transparency and learning have become subordinate to covering one’s rear end, resulting in chronic under-reporting of near misses and other important lessons for fear of reprisal. We make culture. It is the result of choices, either conscious or unconscious."
It is nearly impossible to avoid making mistakes. The USFS talks of endorsing the principles of High Reliability Organizations (HRO) and yet, they continue to refuse to comply with the Five HRO Principles, which include discussing in detail, near misses.
"As the developers of the first Fireline Leadership (L‐380), Incident Leadership (L‐381) and now Advanced Leadership for the C&GS (L‐481) programs, my colleagues and I have spent decades looking deeply into the timeless lessons from humans’ experience in chaos in order to figure out what works and why." And thankfully, you have done that. We would still be waiting if we had to count on the USFS to do it. And it's management that needs those course and instruction much more than the WFs and FFs at the tip of the spear.
"Culture has to start with expectations. Many in wildland fire are asking – 'How much risk is acceptable in fire suppression?' Does engagement with fire always mean fighting the fire?"
"That answer starts with defining the mission and the environment in which it must be conducted [Government] organizations seek to achieve certain politically articulated goals. (footnote omitted) (Boin, Hart, Stern & Sundelius (2010) The Politics of Crisis Management) Those define the expectations of the American people, elected officials, senior leadership, and our leaders."
"Taxes are paid with an expectation of protection from human caused and natural disasters. While no reasonable person expects a firefighter to die or suffer serious injury protecting their property, they do expect [WFs, FFs] to put themselves in harm’s way in an attempt to minimize damage."
That may be the case, and it is especially apparent in busy wildfire years. However, we can and must refuse to succumb to the public's expectations if it would put our WFs and FFs "in harm's way" in compromising unsafe environments.
"In the current perimeter control paradigm, that means placing teams of people and equipment, all subject to the forces of Murphy’s Law ¹¹ into a chaotic environment fraught with friction, danger and uncertainty. Even the best model of probability and severity cannot diagram the exponential risk curve when multiple hazards and human factors begin compounding. Especially when the environment has the potential to change far more quickly than we can detect and react."
Using the Fire Orders and the Watch Out Situations and LCES - even in an alleged "chaotic environment" - is the safe and effective, tried-and-trued method of wildland firefighting that works every time.
"Because 26 or 18.6, or whatever the number may be, will never be zero, the objective cannot be a number. The objective must be a culture whose leaders have the critical thinking and risk decision tools worthy of people getting a very dangerous job done with limited means to do it."
"An over‐reliance on rules and centralized control is a far less effective approach to guiding human action in chaotic conditions. Its rigid inflexibility only adds to friction and uncertainty. Compliance models work well for managing money, vehicles and equipment. Not well for governing human behavior. 'Success as a resilient organization is built on a strong organizational culture and adaptive capacity.'” (footnote omitted)
Competent, experienced WFs and FFs are in agreement with relying on rules and avoid over-reliance as claimed here. This is the Straw Man Fallacy with a twist of the Fallacy of Equivocation (alternating between different meanings of a word or phrase, in a way that renders the argument that contains them unsound).
"Operational cultures that align to principles versus rules, conduct training and practice to communicate intent and support the use of professional judgment are much more agile and effective. 'The secret of their success lies in three characteristics: safety awareness, decentralization, and training' (Footnote omitted) These are safer than compliance based cultures because their operators are armed with the information, understanding, training and freedom required to make continuous risk decisions at their level."
You can still easily and effectively both "align to principles" and follow WF "rules" (the "10 & 18" and LCES) that work and keep them alive.
"For an organization to reach the difficult, but critical balance of safety, efficiency and effectiveness in a high risk environment requires a culture that places great value on team result, trust, truth, initiative, improvement and decisions aligned to the end state trying to be achieved."
We fully agree that "... it requires a culture that places great value on team result, trust, truth, initiative, improvement and decisions aligned to the end state trying to be achieved." However, they somehow seem to always drop off the most important "truth" portion.
"Once the desired culture is defined, budgets, programs, strategies and tactics, decisions and behavior can be aligned to it. Researchers can measure progress."
"When the inevitable occurs, liability investigations can be quickly screened for willful violation or gross negligence. Everything else can be defended using professional judgment and the reasonable person principle. Maximum learning can be gleaned from near misses, accidents and other flawed decisions."
This fully supports the fact that wildland fire fatalities and such are inevitable and all we can do is our best to help reduce them. And it supports our views on the less than credible and alleged "Factual" SAIT-SAIRs that result from them blocking any chance of learning "complete" lessons from them.
"The road to a culture that can walk that kind of talk is extremely difficult to achieve and maintain. There will be ups and downs and setbacks. But until the Big Lie is defeated for good, we’ll never get there."
"The truth is a worthy anchor point to begin to honor both the living and the fallen."
Outfugginstanding statement there. Too bad the USFS has failed at every turn to follow this sage counsel. See the Doublespeak and Doublethink excerpts above and elsewhere on this website. ( https://www.wildfirelessons.net/HigherLogic/System/DownloadDocumentFile.ashx?DocumentFileKey=d4ffe793-d529-f9a4-3205-2f093cab637c&forceDialog=0 )
Consider now some of the excerpts from the Fall 2016 "The Big Lie" which is apparently a sequel to the one titled “Honor the Fallen – The Big Lie.” But first, some thought provoking commentary from the Wildland Fire LLC (WLFLLC) folks that posted it on their website:
"Reactions to the essay have been uniformly one thing: Polarizing. ... Indeed it is. And in this particular case, polarizing is a very good thing.
"The way we see it here at the Lessons Learned Center, 'The Big Lie' has now provided all of us a common reference point from which to rally. It has become a catalyst for dialogue at a national level ..."
"We want thoughtful discourse as a path forward. We want to talk about 'The Big Lie.'” (all emphasis above and below is added)
As Mission Centered Solutions (MCS) Mark Smith points out in his “The Big Lie” essay, "... reflects two years of dialogue within a group known as 'Honor the Fallen' that was born in the wake of the 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire and loss of the 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots."
We posted here on this website (September on this "Honor the Fallen" group of approximately 30 "seekers" and analyzed their comments. We too are "seekers" - Truth Seekers. They claim: "The participants spent the day walking the ground and discussing the challenges facing the wildland fire service as a whole." (emphasis added)
"At the time “The Big Lie” was released and distributed last spring, Honor the Fallen included approximately 30 “seekers” within the wildland fire community, Mark informs. He says this group includes: hosedraggers, fire directors, dirt diggers, academics, ‘ollies,’ agency administrators, ICs, and FMOs."
That is quite a cross section of WFs, however, unfortunately, these so-called "seekers" were highly intent on discounting the known and ignored GMHS hazardous actions and attitudes that led to the fatal outcome on June 30, 2013. Their "Honor the Fallen" video is intent on discrediting all types of everyday wildland fire experiences that WFs have been safely and successfully managing for many years without burnover, shelter deployments, and fatalities. The worst one though, in our view, is the Program Director of the USFS Apprenticeship Program totally disregarding the Ten Standard Fire Orders and the need for "luck decision conversations" instead. Honor the Fallen ( https://youtu.be/TE6Rfa3Vuo0 )
Program Director Cota stated: (based on written transcriptions from the video, so some error may be present) "And the truth is we try and put these into these little boxes in these rules (sic) and the 10 and 18 that cannot, they're not gonna keep us safe; that's been proven time and time again. We can't follow our own rule, (sic) you know whatever they are. This environment, it's way too complex. We're really lucky, we do a good job at it. And I think that to that was luck, the, the whole luck decision conversation. Like ah, how often is it luck, ten minutes, five minutes earlier in a departure ..."
Please bear in mind that this is the National Program Manager of the USFS Apprenticeship Program that allegedly teaches (indoctrinates) the hundreds of new, up-and-coming USFS employees into believing this drivel and feculence. He required instructors that wanted to discuss and examine the YH Fire and GMHS debacle to first retain Regional and Washington-level preapproval of their lesson plan(s). Others were threatened they would be removed from the Academy. Is Orwellian pre-approved speech is Freedom of Speech?
The remarks underneath their HTF video state: "This video was captured on site of the Yarnell Hill Fire in January 2014. The participants spent the day walking the ground and discussing the challenges facing the wildland fire service as a whole." (emphasis added) Sounds pretty good doesn't it? Once again, we maintain that these folks in the so-called "diverse cross section" are selectively, selfishly and possibly even directed by the Federal Wildland Fire Agencies to postulate these views. In other words, these are NOT those "challenges facing the wildland fire service as a whole" as they claim.
"Mark explains that to call this assemblage of folks 'a diverse cross section' would be an understatement. As Mark tells us at the beginning of his essay, 'The Big Lie' benefits from their critical eyes and input." Say what? What "critical eyes and input?" See the above. They are selectively, selfishly and possibly even directed by the Federal Wildland Fire Agencies to postulate those views.
"A lot of people are choosing not to see the truth. I’ve received feedback that large numbers of people agree with the essay, and yet these same people are afraid to talk about it. Why should it be so hard to talk about this subject? That alone warrants some introspection." Amazing insight! These are all very astounding observations and discernment. And all true. And in Arizona, this is especially true at the annual Arizona Wildland Fire Academy where the Academy IMT is basically the June 2013 YH Fire Type 3 IMT, and so it is openly discouraged. And there is almost no public classroom discussion about the YH Fire debacle or the GMHS tragedy. You have to do it discreetly or covertly on breaks, at lunchtime, or at your home or lodging after hours, lest you draw the ire of the Go Along to Get Along and Don't Rock the Boat crowd. There are also those that would betray you and turn Quisling in order to curry favor with them that want to lord it over you. And lest we forget, there is the Tolerance versus Intolerance dichotomy. This insidious contrast that requires one to agree with everything "they" say or believe, i.e. tolerant, for fear that you may be branded as intolerant, i.e. disagree with anything "they" say or believe.
Figure 116. Chuck Connors - Branded movie Snippet Source: Sports Illustrated, TMG Sports
"The intent of 'The Big Lie' essay is not to accuse and certainly not to divide. It is an attempt to unify. To openly talk about the truth in front of us. To prove to ourselves the data and the science behind it. To align the systems of systems to that truth." The attempt to unify is noble, however, unfortunately, the camps will always remain divided. There are those that believe the lies and deception and fairy tale that the GMHS did no wrong. And those that know and believe otherwise - that this is the biggest cover-up. lie, and whitewash in wildland fire history.
"One, when the 10 & 18 were ingrained into the DNA level of a young firefighter’s brain, the 10 & 18 were a lot more effective. Two, the complexity level is exponentially higher than it was even 20 years ago. What was adequate to imprint the thinking behind the 10 & 18 at the molecular level then is not adequate now." Based on the complexity level allegedly being exponentially higher than it was even 20 years ago, it makes complete sense that what was adequate to imprint the thinking behind the 10 & 18 at the molecular level back then is just as much, and more, adequate now. Stay the course on the 10 and 18 and LCES because they work. Resist them and refuse to drink their Kool-Aid.
"An adjunct to this is a category of resistance from those who subscribe to the compliance model of human behavior. Of course, in hindsight, every accident is going to point to one of the 10 or the 18 or downhill checklist etc. as a major factor. This school of thought contends: 'If they just follow the rules, no one can get hurt.' This type of thinking leads to more layers of policies, resulting in even more checklists and policy that contradicts itself." What is wrong with avoiding the Groupthink and joining the category of resistance? Thankfully, this was an Arizona State Forestry wildfire disaster that would have required "more layers of policies, resulting in even more checklists and policy that contradicts itself." As Federal OSHA has said for years, in countless wildland fire tragedies, "We don't need any new rules, we just need to abide by the ones we already have."
And thank Almighty God it was an AZ State Forestry disaster instead of a Federal wildfire tragedy. If it was a USFS fire, we would otherwise have been forever forbidden to fight wildfires during thunderstorms or even the possibility of thunderstorms.
To the question, whether ‘The Big Lie’ [is] evidence of progress? An experienced WF Supervisor responded: 'There is a new generation coming up in the ranks and they’re rarely satisfied with the status quo. I think we’re seeing a lot more questions being asked. This is good. And we need to be prepared to answer the tough questions, such as: ‘Why are we here?'"
These can be good changes and are good questions concerning this new generation, however, there is a caveat. That admonition is that this new generation is intentionally mostly ignorant of historical, past wildland fire tragedies and the lessons concerning the "Old School" ways of leadership and fighting wildfires. They care nothing of Dr. Ted Putnam, the Mann Gulch, South Canyon, Thirty Mile, and other historical wildfires. Theirs is the June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire, however, they are failing to learn what really happened and the causal human factors for why. Hearken back to the alleged GMHS "lookout" McDonough and his coached third year Crewmember comments about the Ten Standard Fire Orders being 'old and hillbilly.' This new generation also subscribes to the failed supervisory style of being everyone's friend. Nauseating.
"Hopefully, we’re moving toward a culture that accepts working smarter not just harder. This doesn’t mean that we don’t fight fire and it certainly doesn’t mean that we don’t accept risk. It means that we take a harder look at our options. It’s my perception that not having good options is not a reason to accept more risk, certainly not the kind of risk that can kill people." A bloomin' triple negative here! When you multiply three negative numbers in math, you end up with a negative number, and the same is true for speech: Three negative words equal a negative meaning.
A culture that accepts working smarter and not just harder is a good thing. We always have options. There will always be risks in our "inherently dangerous" field of work. So then, taking calculated risks based on the tried-and-trued "10 and 18 and LCES" and Risk Management principles will allow us to perform our "inherently dangerous" jobs to the best of our abilities - even in the so-called "too complex" environments.
In order to move forward and achieve the ethical higher ground, (1) we need to reward moral courage in our WFs and FFs; (2) demonstrate honesty; (3) pay heed to ethical questions with some thorough discussion and be sure to request multiple viewpoints; (4) discuss honesty as a core value on a regular basis; and (5) finally, as a culture historically based on creating trust and relationships during short-lived interactions between varying Resources, we must focus on truth and honesty in every one.
WLFLLC Two More Chains - Fall 2016 Vol. 6, Issue 3 (The Big Lie)
( https://www.wildfirelessons.net/HigherLogic/System/DownloadDocumentFile.ashx?DocumentFileKey=d3835538-b011-d685-0e2a-51f3b9672931&forceDialog=0 )
At the outset, we asked the question if the June 26, 1990, Dude Fire was a precursor for the "incomplete" lessons learned on the June 30, 2013, Yarnell Hill Fire? Our answer follows.
Many WFs and FFs used the Dude Fire over the years as a case study for training or as a lessons learned tool to "unbury the past and to increase both institutional memory and organizational learning within the wildland fire community" (Alexander and Thomas 2003), and long-time Forest Service wildland fire researcher and administrator Craig Chandler (1976) has noted in the same Fire Management Today publication, 'Time and time again case histories have proven their value as training aids and as sources of research data.'” (emphasis added)
The GMHS was one of them that allegedly followed this serpentine path based on public records, yet it was a pretext to staying their course of Bad Decisions With Good Outcomes and the Normalization of Deviance. And it is also noted in McDonough's book. "We all knew the names of wildfires that hadn’t ended well: ... the 1990 Dude Fire." (emphasis added) In one interview he made some comments that it was the thunderstorm downdrafts that were responsible for the GMHS fatalities, totally missing the causal human factors elements connection.
"In matters of style swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." Thomas Jefferson
Whoever walks in integrity walks securely, but whoever takes crooked paths will be found out. Proverbs 10:9
Be still, and know that I am God: I will be exalted among the heathen, I will be exalted in the earth. Psalm 46:10 (KJV)
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